Boom in nuclear energy unlikely: Expert

Montreal Gazette
February 4, 2010
Mike De Souza

Boom in nuclear energy unlikely: Expert

OTTAWA — An expansion of nuclear facilities and energy sources is unlikely to occur over the next two decades, unless the global community adopts major changes to improve safety and security as well as working to prevent the risk of proliferation, said a new report released on Thursday.

The study, released at Carleton University by an independent think-tank, concluded that the nuclear industry faces too many barriers when compared to other sources of energy.

"The significant constraints, while not insurmountable, are likely to outweigh the drivers," said the report, Nuclear Energy and Global Governance to 2030: An Action Plan. "For the vast majority of states, nuclear power will be as elusive as ever."

The report was based on nearly four years of research by a team at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and was written by Dr. Trevor Findlay, the director at Carleton's Canadian Centre for Treaty Compliance.

It concluded that the economics and regulatory constraints of developing nuclear power plants were among the biggest barriers for the industry. It also said that alternative forms of energy would be better options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in terms of their feasibility and cost.

"Nuclear energy is not nimble enough to meet the threat of climate change in the short term," the report said. "A nuclear power plant can take a decade of planning, regulatory processes, construction and testing before producing electricity. Cheaper, more quickly deployed alternatives, including energy efficiency, will likely prevail."

Regulations or caps that put a price on pollution from fossil fuels could help nuclear power gain traction, but would not likely be implemented in time to help the industry, the report said.

"In short, despite some powerful drivers and clear advantages, a revival of nuclear energy faces too many barriers compared to other means of generating electricity for it to capture a growing market share to 2030," said the report.

The report also recommended major changes to global mechanisms to ensure safety, security and non-proliferation.

"All have emerged piecemeal and in an unco-ordinated fashion across the decades, reacting to, rather than anticipating, threats and crises," said the report. "They are rarely considered holistically, despite actual and potential synergies. All are under-funded, under-resourced, un-integrated and too often lacking transparency and openness."

Findlay wrote that the international community, governments, industry and other stakeholders must do everything possible to address the potential weaknesses in governance and monitoring.